Browsing by Author "Larson, Anna"
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Item Electoral Turnout in Afghanistan: An Act of Defiance?(The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 2014-04) Larson, Anna; Coburn, NoahThis paper, the second of three on voter perceptions in the Afghan elections, analyses the reactions of a select group of Afghans to the elections in urban areas. It is based upon ongoing research and data collected in the weeks before and during the elections. This has been undertaken by experienced Afghan and international researchers who covered the 2009/10 elections in the same areas of Kabul, allowing for comparative analysis. Respondents included a broad sample of voters, young and old, literate and illiterate, male and female, from a range of occupations, ethnic groups and backgrounds.Item Justifying the Means: Afghan Perceptions of Electoral Processes(United States Institute of Peace, 2013-03) Coburn, Noah; Larson, AnnaThis report focuses on local perceptions of the 2014 presidential elections in Afghanistan. It situates the elections within growing concerns about the political uncertainty of the upcoming transition and explores what Afghans might consider to be a “free and fair” poll in this context. The report details the findings from over fifty interviews conducted with respondents from three different regions of the country, both male and female, and representing all of the major ethnic groups. This research, funded by the United States Institute of Peace, builds, in particular, on earlier in-depth studies of the 2009 and 2010 elections conducted for the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit.Item Not ‘Legitimate’ Yet: The Need for Continued Commitment after the Afghan Elections(The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 2014-05) Larson, Anna; Coburn, NoahThis paper, the last of three in a Chatham House series on voter perceptions in the Afghan elections, is intended to provide insights into how certain groups of Afghans are reacting to the elections in areas of Kabul where participation was generally high. It is based upon research carried out in the weeks leading up to and following the elections by experienced Afghan researchers who covered the 2009/10 elections in the same areas of Kabul, allowing for comparative analysis. Respondents included a broad sample of potential voters, young and old, literate and illiterate, male and female, from a range of occupations, ethnic groups and backgrounds.Item Undermining Representative Governance: Afghanistan’s 2010 Parliamentary Election and Its Alienating Impact(Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), 2011-02) Coburn, Noah; Larson, AnnaThis paper analyses the 2010 election as it happened in three provinces (Kabul, Balkh and Paktya), providing insight into the preparations, process and results in these areas. It situates the election in its political and historical context, drawing on an extensive two-year study by the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) of Afghan perspectives on elections.Item Voting Together: Why Afghanistan’s 2009 Elections were (and were not) a Disaster(Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), 2009-11) Coburn, Noah; Larson, AnnaThe Afghan elections in 2009 have become infamous for low turnout, fraud and insecurity. Delay in announcing the results and rumours of private negotiations have increased existing scepticism of the electoral process among national and international commentators. What has been overlooked, however, is the way in which—at least at the local level—these elections have been used to change the balance of power in a relatively peaceful manner. In many areas of Afghanistan, the polls emphasised local divisions and groupings, and highlighted the importance of political and voting blocs (which can include ethnic groups, qawms, or even family units) in determining political outcomes. Also, while perhaps not “legitimate” by international standards, these elections reflected the highly localised cultural and social context in which they took place: a context that is often patronage-based and in which power is gained through constant struggle and dialogue between political groups and leaders. This study presents the August 2009 electoral process as it played out in three different areas of Kabul Province: Dasht-i Barchi, Qarabagh and Istalif. In each of these locations, the presidential and provincial council elections were key events in shifting the balance of local power. These areas also demonstrate the different ways in which voting blocs functioned and, while not representative of the country as a whole, provide valuable insights into the meaning and usefulness of elections at the local level.Item Why Afghanistan’s Provincial Council Elections Matter(United States Institute of Peace, 2014-03-26) Coburn, Noah; Larson, AnnaAfghanistan’s Provincial Councils (PCs) represent one of the best hopes for the future of local democracy in Afghanistan. Yet since their shaky formation in 2005, they continue to be overlooked by international actors preferring to interact with parliamentarians, ministers and appointed governors. The significance assigned by Afghans to winning PC seats has steadily increased over the last decade. Indeed, for many, the April 5 PC elections will do more than the presidential poll to determine whether democratic practices continue to take root in local politics. PC elections offer a chance to build local, personal ties and accountability mechanisms connecting to increasingly centralized government resources, and, in particular, an opportunity for a new generation of young, motivated Afghans to begin their political careers. As the locally-visible manifestation of the Afghan political system, PCs are the immediate face of democracy—or a lack thereof—for many Afghans. In 2009, with most news stories covering the widespread fraud in the presidential contest, the uproar over the fraud and delay throughout the PC polling process rarely received coverage on newspaper front pages. Yet those problems contributed significantly to people’s sense of alienation and disillusionment with their country’s political actors and electoral institutions. In spite of these experiences, Afghans are once again preparing to go to the polls. Voters, candidates, parties and local organizations are putting greater emphasis than ever on the process of provincial council polling—expressing concern about the prospects for fraud, mobilizing around their candidates and campaigning in earnest. If due attention to the process is not paid by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and by international agencies, popular participation in future elections could drop. Prospects for Afghan democratization will depend much on how these and future provincial-level elections are conducted.Item Why Vote in 2014? Afghan Views of the Elections(The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 2014-04) Larson, Anna; Coburn, NoahA surprising number of urban Afghans are planning to vote in the elections on 5 April, despite recent attacks on electoral officials, the threat of more general violence, the precedent set for widespread electoral fraud in 2009, suspected backroom deals between elites and rumours of international meddling. Further, an overwhelming majority of those interviewed in a Chatham House-sponsored project suggested there was no alternative to elections as a means to transfer power, indicating that international support for the electoral process is welcome and necessary. However, participation is less about an embrace of democratic practice or the policy platforms of different candidates than about wanting a peaceful handover of power and a secure rather than violent future. To this end, reasons for voting are not so much about choosing the kind of government that people want to see established, but instead to ensure that a government of sorts is established. The reasons include religious and/or moral duty; needing to counter fraudulent votes with ‘real’ ones; needing to convince elites that elections are the only means of transferring power from one president to the next; making a stand against Taliban attempts to disrupt the process; and demonstrating the size of the candidates’ support bases. These elections are also seen as a harbinger of the country’s political trajectory over the medium term. Whether parliamentary elections occur in 2015 very much depends on what happens this year. Much speculation, both positive and negative, exists about the role of international actors, with rumours of international interference in the outcome countered by a widespread desire for an international presence at the polling stations and in the medium to long term through the Bilateral Security Agreement) (BSA). This potential mandate for assistance is encouraging, but must be considered carefully if it is to lead to a productive relationship between the new Afghan government and the international community. For the Taliban, the elections will involve a show of strength to disrupt the process as far as possible, without going so far as to lose credibility among the members of Afghan society whose support they have won.Item Youth Mobilization and Political Constraints in Afghanistan: The Y Factor(United States Institute of Peace, 2014-01) Larson, Anna; Coburn, NoahYouth and young political leaders are reshaping Afghan politics, even as they and ostensibly Western-style civil society groups operate in a political system dominated by commanders and other power brokers from an earlier generation. Drawing on over a hundred interviews, this report examines the potential space for youth in Afghanistan’s political landscape, highlighting some of the major issues confronting young people that are likely to be common in other parts of Afghanistan. The work builds on several initiatives by the United States Institute of Peace and will be complemented by a broader, national-level study.